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MER EDITORIAL:
THE SUB - CONTINENT:
WHAT FUTURE ?
WHAT IMPACT ?
 
 
  "I INVITE YOU TO WORK CLOSELY WITH 
  US FOR USHERING IN A NEW ERA OF 
  DURABLE PEACE AND STABILITY."
             Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
          Pakistan, 3/22/98
  "WE HAVE NOT TAKEN A DECISION
  ON MAKING SUCH WEAPONS.  BUT WE
  SHALL NOT FIGHT SHY OF INDUCTING
  NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF THAT SHOULD
  BECOME NECESSARY."
           Defense Minister George Fernandes
           India, 3/22/98
 

MER - Washington - 27 March:
   The sub-continent is on the periphery of the Middle East; yet very important to it.
   India has given hints that it may deploy nuclear weapons - it has had the capability for some time but not yet actively pursued it.  With the Americans so actively policing the world, the Chinese so actively
building up their military, and India's balancing ally, the former Soviet Union now no more, India may decide that it is time for formal entry to the nuclear club.  Whether the new government of Atal Behari
Vajpayee, led by his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is just trying to get some American attention, or serious about pursuing long-time Indian aspirations, is not yet known, probably not even by
themselves.
    In Pakistan the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is challenged on so many fronts.  Pakistan too has nuclear technology; with the Americans badgering and threatening about it for many years now.
Pakistan is still owed more than half a billion dollars for fighter planes bought but never delivered by the U.S. because of the nuclear issue.  The planes are gradually growing useless anyway withering in "storage" in the hot desert sun of the American southwest, nobody else now interested in aging planes far less capable of those the Americans now sell to Israel and the Arab client-regimes.     Pakistan joined in the American armada to "liberate" Kuwait in 1991and remains greatly infiltrated by the CIA.  Even so, Islamabad retains close relations with Tehran, while at the same time also having close relations for years with the Hashemite and al-Saud regimes which it has helped keep in power.  As with so much in the Middle East and the sub-continent as well, alliances are convoluted and entangled making it exceedingly hard to predict what will eventually happen and with what eventual impact.
     Nawaz Sharif and his Washington-educated Information Minister Mushahid Shah are certainly right when they say:
 

     India and Pakistan, like historic Palestine -- now either known as Israel or occupied by Israel -- continues to struggle with the legacy of British imperialism from the past.  The slaughter and refugee
exodus that led to Pakistan's creation, and the remaining Jammu and Kashmir flashpoints of today, go back to that period of British "withdrawal".  And today's hatred and mistrust between Hindu India and
Muslim Pakistan are at least as great as between Jewish Israel and Muslim occupied Palestine.
     It will not be easy to prevent a sub-continent arms race as China to the East grows in power and the Middle East to the West rages in its own escalating arms competition coupled with the modern-day de-facto American occupation of the central Islamic country of Saudi Arabia.
     The diplomats will feint this way and that.
     The Americans will bribe and threaten as usual.
     The CIA will step-up still further its infiltration, especially in Pakistan where it has such a foothold going back to the cold war and especially to the regimes of Benazir Bhutto.
     And in all likelihood, tragic as it may be, the fears and suspicions which are also the legacy of these once proud peoples will prevail in this world of ours and the resources of the area will be further diverted and squandered into more arms build-ups, includingnuclear.
     Just a few days before the positive statements by the PM Sharif, the Pakistanis were expelling India diplomats charging them with subversion.  India's response: "These allegations are entirely false, baseless and malicious... We dismiss these allegations with the contempt it deserves."  Good intentions and well-crafted speeches will certainly not be enough to overcome this legacy of anxiety, suspicion, and yes
contempt.
     The ramifications of all this on the Middle East, on the ongoing Arab-Israeli struggle, and on the de-facto American occupation of so much of the entire region, are very difficult to predict.  But be
sure -- very sure -- ramifications there will be.

                                                        MAB
 

M I D - E A S T  R E A L I T I E S
 (202) 362-5266, Ext 638   Fax: (202) 362-6965    MER@MiddleEast.Org
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