ISRAEL PREPARES TO
FURTHER CRUSH PALESTINIANS
.
ARAFAT DESPERATE TO
WIGGLE OUT OF APARTHEID
CONDITIONS HE HELPED
BRING ABOUT
MER - WASHINGTON - 20 July:
What's really going on is a battle
to undo what has been done. The "Peace Process" of the 1990s was always
built on shifting sands. The Palestinian regime of Yasser Arafat has brought
much repression and corruption to the areas it "autonomously" semi-controls
-- far more than was the case previously. Palestinians today live in a
weird form of "double occupation" that has no direct precedent; corraled
into separated and surrounded Bantustan-like enclaves as never before in
their history.
The Israelis -- divided themselves
between those who want to further push the Palestinians into accepting
this "Apartheid Peace" and those who want to undo Oslo awaiting some future
"settlement" (one that could still include turning Jordan into a "Palestinian
Homeland") -- all realize they need to publicly dance to the "peace process"
while privately continuing to pursue Palestinian containment.
This interesting report from Global
Intelligence Updates last week highlights some of what is really going
on behind the scenes, but fails to realize how the Americans (the Good
Cop) and the Israelis (the Bad Cop) also continue to very closely coordinate
behind the scenes while the gullible and co-opted Arab regimes have their
own self-serving reasons for playing along.
ISRAEL PREPARES FOR TROUBLE
Israel: Israel radio on Monday, July
13, reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met secretly
with seven cabinet ministers for the third time on Sunday, to develop a
"strategic policy" for dealing with the Arab Israeli population. The secret
committee, including intelligence and security officials, reportedly determined
that a "tough hand" may be needed to handle an increasing fanatical and
fundamentalist tendency among the Arab Israelis, who comprise roughly 18
percent of Israel's population.
Israel is feeling pressure from the
Palestinians, neighboring Arab states, and even the United States, and
is preparing for trouble.
Egypt has effectively abandoned Israel
and the United States over the impasse in the peace process, and Jordan
this weekend also suspended relations with Israel. Jordan's Petra-JNA news
agency reported that Jordanian Senator Dhawqan al-Hindawi, head of the
Jordanian delegation to the Arab-European Parliamentary Dialogue conference
in Damascus, said in a speech to the conference that, "Jordan is currently
freezing, without announcement, its dealings with Israel regarding issues
stipulated in the peace treaty with Israel until the latter changes its
current anti-peace policy and resumes the peace process on the Palestinian,
Syrian, and Lebanese tracks."
Jordan's action further paves the way
for an Arab summit that has been in the works for the past few months.
Syria announced on Monday that it was opposed to an Arab summit until Arab
states freeze all ties to Israel and reactivate the Arab economic boycott.
Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam told the London-based Arabic
newspaper "Al-Quds al-Arabi" that the 1996 Arab summit in Cairo had "adopted
secret binding resolutions, stipulating a freeze in the normalization with
Israel if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues his expansionist
policies, the construction of settlements, and the destruction of the peace
process." With relations with Egypt and now with Jordan souring, Israel
is running out of friends in the region.
The United States is also not hiding
its frustration with Israel. On Monday, Netanyahu said Israel only awaited
Palestinian adoption of commitments on Israeli security before it would
accept the U.S. plan for troop withdrawal from the West Bank. Furthermore,
he claimed, "In the recent days, we have made a significant progress in
our understanding with the United States." But responding to the Prime
Minister's comments, U.S. State Department spokesman James Rubin said,
"The ball is not in the Palestinian court. The ball is in the court of
the Israelis to try to work with the Palestinians and work with us..."
In a meeting following Netanyahu's
speech, the Prime Minister and his security cabinet once again postponed
a decision on withdrawal from the West Bank.
In a last ditch effort to forge an
agreement, the United States has called for direct Israeli-Palestinian
talks, and has reportedly threatened to abandon its role as mediator if
talks not show positive results. Both sides have agreed to hold a meeting,
but the Palestinians have refused to reopen negotiations on the scope of
the Israeli withdrawal. The Palestinian position is that the current U.S.-backed
plan to turn over 13 percent is a compromise, and if negotiations are reopened,
they will begin with their stated desire for control of 40 percent of the
West Bank.
The London-based Arabic newspaper "Al-Zaman"
reported on July 10 that ten days of secret Israeli-Palestinian talks had
concluded in a European city, perhaps Oslo, and had ended in failure. The
Israeli side, which supposedly included an advisor to Netanyahu and the
deputy head of Mossad, reportedly turned down Palestinian compromise offers
of 12 or 11 percent Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank, and instead
held firm to an offer of only a nine percent withdrawal. If this report
is true, the prospects for talks later this week are grim.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Amr Moussa
on Monday said that the planned talks were a "waste of time." He told the
UAE newspaper "Al-Ittihad" that "matters are at such a dangerous point
they cannot be saved by negotiations here or there." He told the newspaper
"Al-Hayat" that he did not expect a solution to the West Bank situation
by the end of July, and that the "general feeling" among members of the
Clinton administration was that Washington would abandon the negotiations
with Israel at the end of the month, whatever the result.
Finally, Radio Monte Carlo reported
on Sunday that a group of 1,000 Islamic Jihad members met July 11 in the
Gaza Strip refugee camp of Shati. At the meeting, Sheikh Abdullah al-Shami,
a senior Islamic Jihad leader, reportedly called for renewed suicide operations
against Israel.
As its plans for dealing with Arab
Israelis reveal, Israel is scared. It is losing the support of Egypt, Jordan,
and the United States, and its Arab neighbors are drawing closer together,
preparing for a summit to devise a common Arab response to the stalled
peace process.
Parallel to plans for an Arab summit
are hints of an "Arab NATO." Meanwhile, the potential for another Intifadeh
is increasing, and radicals are preparing for a suicide bombing campaign.
The revelation of Israeli planning
for internal trouble says a number of things. First, it is a signal to
Arabs that Israel will take a very hard line against a renewal of violence
within Israel. But moreover, the existence of Netanyahu's secret committee
reveals a rush to address the country's strategic weaknesses.
As we wrote in our June 30, Israel
is undergoing a fundamental strategic review. Israelis have long prepared
for medium to high intensity warfare--armor and air battles. They now appear
to be shifting to a U.S.-like, two-pronged strategy of deterrence combined
with unconventional, low intensity conflict. Israel's plans to purchase
submarines capable of launching missiles with nuclear warheads is the deterrent
side. Preparations for the Intifadeh are the other side.
Israel can not stand another six months
of news footage of soldiers firing plastic bullets at stone-throwing children.
It can not tolerate suicide bombers destroying buses and markets. The question
is, how can Israel stop it? Israel can attempt a total lock-down of the
occupied territories, but can Israel also detain 18 percent of its population?
It can attempt a decapitation attack,
arresting or killing the leaders of the Palestinian unrest, but complete
success at this strategy is nearly impossible, and new heads grow. It can
attempt to infiltrate and disrupt the new Intifadeh, also a difficult and
possibly futile task. Or, Israel can return to the table.
However the negotiations go, Israel
is in a rush to revise its strategic doctrine to meet reality. Yes, Israel
is scared, but Israel's advantage is that, when it panics, it takes action
to rectify the situation. Still unknown is whether Israel can complete
preparations ahead of the Arabs.
Global Intelligence Updates - July
14, 1998
