M I D
- E A S T R E A L I T I E S - WWW.MiddleEast.Org
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MER EDITORIAL:
THE SUB - CONTINENT:
WHAT FUTURE ?
WHAT IMPACT ?
"I INVITE YOU TO WORK CLOSELY WITH
US FOR USHERING IN A NEW ERA OF
DURABLE PEACE AND STABILITY."
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif
Pakistan, 3/22/98 |
"WE HAVE NOT TAKEN A DECISION
ON MAKING SUCH WEAPONS. BUT WE
SHALL NOT FIGHT SHY OF INDUCTING
NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF THAT SHOULD
BECOME NECESSARY."
Defense Minister George Fernandes
India, 3/22/98
|
MER - Washington - 27 March:
The sub-continent
is on the periphery of the Middle East; yet very important to it.
India has given hints
that it may deploy nuclear weapons - it has had the capability for some
time but not yet actively pursued it. With the Americans so actively
policing the world, the Chinese so actively
building up their military, and
India's balancing ally, the former Soviet Union now no more, India may
decide that it is time for formal entry to the nuclear club. Whether
the new government of Atal Behari
Vajpayee, led by his Hindu nationalist
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is just trying to get some American attention,
or serious about pursuing long-time Indian aspirations, is not yet known,
probably not even by
themselves.
In Pakistan
the government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is challenged on so many
fronts. Pakistan too has nuclear technology; with the Americans badgering
and threatening about it for many years now.
Pakistan is still owed more than
half a billion dollars for fighter planes bought but never delivered by
the U.S. because of the nuclear issue. The planes are gradually growing
useless anyway withering in "storage" in the hot desert sun of the American
southwest, nobody else now interested in aging planes far less capable
of those the Americans now sell to Israel and the Arab client-regimes.
Pakistan joined in the American armada to "liberate" Kuwait in 1991and
remains greatly infiltrated by the CIA. Even so, Islamabad retains
close relations with Tehran, while at the same time also having close relations
for years with the Hashemite and al-Saud regimes which it has helped keep
in power. As with so much in the Middle East and the sub-continent
as well, alliances are convoluted and entangled making it exceedingly hard
to predict what will eventually happen and with what eventual impact.
Nawaz
Sharif and his Washington-educated Information Minister Mushahid Shah are
certainly right when they say:
"Pakistan
and India stand at the crossroads at
a time of massive global
transformations. We are
the inheritors of proud civilizations
but our rich
potential for economic growth
has remained subdued.
We have a very special responsibility
to step out
of the old mind-set of confrontation
and tension to
a new outlook enthused by
the ideals of peace and
development. That is
what we owe to our peoples.
The resumption of the dialogue
between Pakistan and
India for redressing all
the outstanding issues
between our two countries,
including a peaceful
settlement of the Jammu and
Kashmir dispute, will
pave the way for such an
outcome."
India and
Pakistan, like historic Palestine -- now either known as Israel or occupied
by Israel -- continues to struggle with the legacy of British imperialism
from the past. The slaughter and refugee
exodus that led to Pakistan's creation,
and the remaining Jammu and Kashmir flashpoints of today, go back to that
period of British "withdrawal". And today's hatred and mistrust between
Hindu India and
Muslim Pakistan are at least as
great as between Jewish Israel and Muslim occupied Palestine.
It will
not be easy to prevent a sub-continent arms race as China to the East grows
in power and the Middle East to the West rages in its own escalating arms
competition coupled with the modern-day de-facto American occupation of
the central Islamic country of Saudi Arabia.
The diplomats
will feint this way and that.
The Americans
will bribe and threaten as usual.
The CIA
will step-up still further its infiltration, especially in Pakistan where
it has such a foothold going back to the cold war and especially to the
regimes of Benazir Bhutto.
And in
all likelihood, tragic as it may be, the fears and suspicions which are
also the legacy of these once proud peoples will prevail in this world
of ours and the resources of the area will be further diverted and squandered
into more arms build-ups, includingnuclear.
Just a
few days before the positive statements by the PM Sharif, the Pakistanis
were expelling India diplomats charging them with subversion. India's
response: "These allegations are entirely false, baseless and malicious...
We dismiss these allegations with the contempt it deserves." Good
intentions and well-crafted speeches will certainly not be enough to overcome
this legacy of anxiety, suspicion, and yes
contempt.
The ramifications
of all this on the Middle East, on the ongoing Arab-Israeli struggle, and
on the de-facto American occupation of so much of the entire region, are
very difficult to predict. But be
sure -- very sure -- ramifications
there will be.
MAB
M
I D - E A S T R E A L I T I E S
(202)
362-5266, Ext 638 Fax: (202) 362-6965 MER@MiddleEast.Org
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