M I D - E A S T   R E A L I T I E S

ISRAEL SAID TO BE 7 TO 8 TIMES STRONGER THAN ALL ARAB

MILITARY FORCES COMBINED - A MILITARY GENERATION AHEAD

Israel's greatest military disaster in which more than 70 elite soldiers perished on Tuesday did not take place in a vacuum.

Earlier on Tuesday there was heavy fighting throughout southern Lebanon in what Israel calls its "security zone". More than 20 Israeli and Southern Lebanese Army outposts in the zone were attacked during the day by Hizbollah, with arms and encouragement from Iran and Syria.

It is thought that the elite Israeli army commandos who died were being transported secretly into southern Lebanon for night time attacks against Hizbollah and to continue the ongoing Israeli assassination of Hizbollah leaders.

In an associated development, the well-known military journal -- Jane's Intelligence Review -- has released a report concluding that a war in the Middle East is "closer than before," but that no matter what type of war might take place Israel will emerge victorious. Stating that Israel has become the third-strongest world power, the British periodical writes that the Israel Air Force is seven to eight times stronger than the combined might of those of the Arab nations, and that the Israeli military forces are at present a generation ahead of their Arab counterparts. In the 25-page report for possible war scenarios are outlined:

* A limited war started by Syria and Hizbullah against Israel for political purposes

* An Israeli-Palestinian conflict, with Israel facing 35-50,000 armed Palestinians and which would probably lead to Israel deciding to retake control of the autonomous areas of the West Bank and Gaza.

* An Israeli attack against Iran designed to destroy Iranian weapons of mass destruction and weaken Iran overall on behalf of the American-sponsored Arab "client-regimes" in the region -- especially Saudi Arabia.

* A more general war involving any combination of the above in which it is thought Israel would successfully destroy all Arab armies in one to two weeks and rely on its nuclear deterrent for any unforeseen developments.

Furthermore, a recent report from a committee of the U.S. Congress has gone further than the Janes Review report, actually forecasting the serious possibility of a Middle East war in the foreseeable future and claiming that Arab leaders have held secret meetings planning such a war.

--------------------------2/4/97------------------------------------